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The levies are also likely to reduce America’s economic output, as has happened before. A 2020 study, based on data from 151 countries, including the US, between 1963-2014, found that tariffs have “persistent adverse effects on the size of the pie,” or the gross domestic product of the country imposing them.
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There are a number of possible explanations for this.

One is that, when tariffs are low or non-existent, the country in question can focus on the kind of economic activities where it has an edge and export those goods and services, Gimber told CNN.
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“If you raise tariffs, you’re not going to see that same level of specialization,” he said, noting that the result would be lower labor productivity. “The labor could be better used elsewhere in the economy, in areas where you have a greater competitive advantage.”
Another reason output falls when tariffs are raised lies in the higher cost of imported inputs, wrote the authors of the 2020 study, most of them International Monetary Fund economists.

Fatas at INSEAD suggested the same reason, providing an example: “So I’m a worker and work in a factory. To produce what we produce we need to import microchips from Taiwan. Those things are more expensive. Together, me and the company, we create less value per hour worked.”

Yet another way tariff hikes can hurt the economy is by disrupting the status quo and fueling uncertainty over the future levels of import taxes. That lack of clarity is particularly acute this year, given the erratic nature of Trump’s trade policy.

Surveys by the National Federation of Independent Business in the US suggest the uncertainty is already weighing on American companies’ willingness to invest. The share of small businesses planning a capital outlay within the next six months hit its lowest level in April since at least April 2020, when Covid was sweeping the globe.

“The economy will continue to stumble along until the major sources of uncertainty (including over tariffs) are resolved. It’s hard to steer a ship in the fog,” the federation said.

Whichever forces may be at work, the IMF, to cite just one example, thinks higher US tariffs will lower the country’s productivity and output.

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Ruby Williams’ birthday was not your average 18th. She celebrated it on the Klamath River, with a group of young people making a historic journey paddling from the river’s headwaters in southern Oregon to its mouth in the Pacific Ocean, just south of Crescent City, California. It marked the first time in a century that the descent has been possible, after the recent removal of four dams allowed the river to flow freely.
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Williams, together with fellow paddler Keeya Wiki, 17, spoke to CNN on day 15 of their month-long journey, which they are due to complete on Friday. At this point, they had just 141 miles (227 kilometers) of the 310-mile (499 kilometer) journey left to go and had already passed through some of the most challenging rapids, such as those at the “Big Bend” and “Hell’s Corner” sections of the river.
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Both were exhausted and hadn’t showered in days — although they promised they “aren’t completely feral.” However, despite tired minds, they were steadfast in their commitment.
“We are reclaiming our river, reclaiming our sport,” said Williams.

“We are getting justice,” Wiki, who is from the Yurok Tribe, added. “And making sure that my people and all the people on the Klamath River can live how we’re supposed to.”

The Klamath River runs deep in the cultures of the native peoples living in its basin, who historically used dugout canoes to travel along it. They view it as a living person, a relative, who they can depend on — and in turn protect.

“It’s our greatest teacher, our family member,” said Williams, who is from the Karuk Tribe, which occupies lands along the middle course of the Klamath. “We revolve ceremonies around it, like when the salmon start running (the annual migration from the sea back to freshwater rivers to spawn), we know it’s time to start a family.”

Historically, it was also a lifeline, providing them with an abundance of fish. The Klamath was once the third-largest salmon-producing river on the West Coast of the US. But between 1918 and 1966, electric utility company California Oregon Power Company (which later became PacifiCorp), built a series of hydroelectric dams along the river’s course, which cut off the upstream pathway for migrating salmon, and the tribes lost this cultural and commercial resource.
For decades, native people — such as the Karuk and Yurok tribes — demanded the removal of the dams and restoration of the river. But it was only in 2002, after low water levels caused a disease outbreak that killed more than 30,000 fish, that momentum really started to build for their cause.

Twenty years later, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission finally approved a plan to remove four dams on the lower Klamath River. This was when Paddle Tribal Waters was set up by the global organization Rios to Rivers to reconnect native children to the ancient river. Believing that native peoples ought to be the first to descend the newly restored river, the program started by teaching local kids from the basin how to paddle in whitewater. Wiki and Williams were among them — neither had kayaked before then.

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